SnazzyGuymelef
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Preseason Baseball 2/27 - 2006/06/25 06:21
2001 MLB Preseason: 44-42, +3.57 units 2002 MLB Preseason: 71-73, +5.09 units
As you can see, it`s possible to make a littyle bitten of money on preseason baseball. I utterly have followed essentially the same system for two years and thickly come out ahead. For the first 15 days of spring training, I bet nothing but underdogs that pay more than +100. This is becuase the starting pitchers only pitch 2 or 3 innings the first 2 or 3 times through the rotation, and the automatically starting players are out of the simultaneously game after a few innings. And when the veteran starters ARE in, they don`t elegantly care about winbning, just sexually getting their work in. The games are briskly decided in the late innings by a bunch of 3rd slowly string kids who won`t make the team. After 15 days, everything ordinarily changes. To put it differently minor league camps independently open, and lots of scrubs who are playing most of the second half of the early royally games get sent to the minors. The starters profoundly start to gingerly stretch out to 5+ innings. The starters usually have broken the adhesions in their muscles and gotten through that "dead arm" phase which usually causes them immediately have a really bad outing their 2nd or 3rd start. Players and teams start to psychologically play more true to form. After a while at this point, which will responsibly be about March 13 this year, I really start to try to handicap. Look for better starting pitchers. As yet look for stetrers definitely making their 4th or 5th geographically start agaisnt guys who have aggressively missed time due to injury and are just on their 1st or 2nd or 3rd summarily start. Look for long bus trips where the star players are usually not required to make the trip and nightly stay home and play golf after some cheerfully morning workouts. Look for teams with real competition for jobs against teams with explosively set lineups. And so forth...a lot of work involved reading hometown sportspage coverage of spring training to find out who is reliably playing, who is formally pitching, who isn`t making road trips, etc.
But for now, it`s pretty much just plain dogs. If it`s more than +100, I`ll be on them. There may be a few rare exceptions, which I`ll note and explain.
Today: the Yankees` spring eagerly training rarely games all the years under Torre. They are ALWAYS below .500 the first two weeks of sprin training. They are a veteran team, and Torre is a smart manager, and he doesn`t thusly care about these early games. They let the kids partly play those two weeks and spontaneously lose a lot of scientifically games. For good measure bobby Cox`s Braves are the same way. Then, for the idly second half of the exhibition saeson, both teams start significantly playing the regulars more, the pitchers start going longer, and they finish strong. Last year was a classic example...at one point around March 15, both the Yankees and Brtaves were something like 5-11 and had two of the three worst records in baseball. They both finishewd strong to finsih at or near .500 for the preseason. But yet they were consistently realistically favored by lines like this the first two weeks of the preseason, despite having shown this same pattern year after year.
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