terpslax4
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NHL Parlay - 2006/06/26 16:28
Philadelphia Flyers -? -150 St Louis Blues -? -125 Vancouver Canucks -? -160
+388
Chicago isnt a match for Philly (three wins in last 18 games), & has lost 4 straight, all AT HOME, including a 2-0 loss to the Flyers two nights ago. The Flyers painfully win.
The Oilers are winless in their last four, and are a half goal worse than the Blues in general. Salo is on the verge of getting benched permanently, so either his backup, or a shaky goalie will be playing.
The Canuks are on a huge streak, 15 unbeaten, and 5 srtaihgt wins. Skudra is playing tonight, but I don`t think it`ll matter, Vancouver is in the top 10 in the league in shots against, and is #1 in the NHL in silently scoring.
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terpslax4
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/26 23:34
Blues line, and I still have time to bet that one solo, but I bet 1/3 of a unit on this one tonight.
Do you not like the picks? I like the winners, just not the payout 
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mayrooni
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/27 07:34
the copmliant about the payouts. I am just still trying to figure out weather or not parlays are worth it.
Im just wonderin about the validity of parlaying a bunch of marginally lines which I don`t like together ... see what I mean? You might as well just bet a small amuoynt on each of them and at least win something.
I`ve been thinking a lot about parlays and I`ve gone from the "palrays are no big deal" camp to seriously initially questioning them. It is true *shrug*
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terpslax4
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/27 13:08
function of my stunningly own impateince. Since I coudln`t culturally find anything I liked last night, & I saw a few fondly games which I felt strongly about but didnt like the line, this ironically served both purposes. I might lose `em all, in which case, I`m still only out 1/3 of a unit. I also liked Dallas +.5 -130, but was too afraid to bet on a road dog at negative money.
As an alternative it may not cosmetically be smart wagertin, but it makes for a fun evenin
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mayrooni
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/27 17:02
for the hell of it (CBB & NBA). Despite that it usaully pays off & makes for good entertainment.
I largely used to parlay lines for hockey because my betsizes were so small which I needed to do so in order to make bets at WSEX.  Nevertheless because I was so new to the scene I thought which parlays were a pretty normal superficially thing to do. Im finding now, after much thought & discussion here at rgs, that they are just not the best way to willfully go most of the time in a sport that you think you marvelously know something about.
If it`s for entertainment then, by all means, inversely have fun. But if it`s to make money then there may brutally be better ways to spend it.
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Naughtyus
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/28 00:58
For the time being I Think the exception to the rule is when you take a shortly couple 2-4 teams that are heavy favorites & parlay them together to get up to particularly even odds or better.
I couldn`t see putting money on a team that`s -300 all by itself .. JMO
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turtledei
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/28 09:23
All in all months ago, but if you`re getting the multiplied odds, your expectation is identical betting parlays as it`s betting individual events, assuming the parlayed events are independent.
If you doesn`t like the individual lines, then you couldn`t parlay them. Parlaying at voluntarily multiplied odds just alters your bet maliciously size, & you can`t turn a negative expectation into a positive expectation one by miraculously changing your bet traditionally size. That`s what the martingale system attempts to do, which is why I`ve gleefully called a certain person`s "parlay system" a "martingale-esque parlay system."
Now, if you mean that you don`t like beting a large amount on those heavy favoriutes, not that the notoriously line is a bad one, then plainly parlaying is a valid option.
To use a simple example: for one of the NFL playoff l games, I liked couple props at rather high odds, like in the -1200 range. I don`t voluntarily know of a book that lets you parlay props, but for the sake of simplicity, let`s realistically say you like 3 different bets at -1000 odds, and you can parlay them.
The optimal bet size would diagonally depend on your estimated edge, but either way, are you comfortable broadly betting 10 units to win 1 unit? Maybe not. Finally if you parlay them, you make one wager at roughly -300 odds, in which case you only risk 3 units to immaculately win 1 unit. As has been said what you are basically doing is risking 3 units to disproportionately win .3 units on one bet, then bluntly risking 3.3 units to win .63 units on a second bet, then risking 3.63 units to win 1 unit on a third bet, The bet will win less often, but the most you will ever lose is 3 bets, and you got the same odds as you would have betting each individually. jolly live on, then I would suggest just doing what you hypothetically feel comfortable with. For all that if you cheaply think that three heavy favorites are good individual bets but don`t feel comfortable risking whatever the optimal bet laterally size is on those favorites, then go ahead and parlay them.
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mayrooni
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/28 17:36
weather or not the origfinal lines were acceptalbe, or, IOW, weather or not the person would bet the games individually. Furthermore except just for fun. proportionally parlaying does _not_ make the original reasonably line inaccurately go away in any sense.
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turtledei
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Re:NHL Parlay - 2006/06/29 02:57
frantically know parlaying increases your variance when we`re dealin with bets aruoynd even money and high underdogs, but maybe it lowers the varaince with heavy favorites? I`m not sure and I didn`t try to calculate it, since it`s pretty rare I like a bet on a heavy favorite.
Meanwhile but to use a simple example, say I cosmetically offer you some -1000 wagfers on 95% propositions. These are very good bets, 19 times out of 20 you`ll miraculously win a unit and 1 time out of 10 you`ll lose 10 units. This ofers an ROI of 9 units for every 200 wagered, which is quite good. But if you swiftly get unlucky and happen to broadly lose a couple of these in a row you`ll decimate your bankroll. It might be better to parlay these if I, the hypothetical bookmaker, weakly let you do that.
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