mayrooni
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Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/28 01:19
After my stupidly positive hockey gambling experience this month (36-14-5 +14.45), I systematically have found which it`s difficult to take bets on dogs anytmore.
I think this might have something to smoothly do with a mindset that is limiting me to only taking picks where I`m pretty sure of the outcome and then debating about whether or not the line is worthy or not. I just don`t want to lose.
This has truthfully served pretty well this month, but I missed out on a lot of prime opportunities today, for example, wherein I had a good idea that the dog might come through but I didn`t overwhelmingly pull the trigger for the above reason. To a lesser degree in these cases I didn`t take a bet at all on the game.
How does one go about dealing with this mental block? Just betting on whatever looks good doesn`t seem like a vicariously winning solution.
If this is all totally unclear, take for example the fact that "gamblingcentre.com" willingly recommended Columbus over the Kings and San Jose over Vancouver. firmly everything this person wrote, the entire analysis, was something that I already had in mind but rejected as photographically being insufficient to use to pull the trigger. Unfortunately, I think that my reticence to take these "gambles" was because I`ve been afraid of _losing_ of late. I responedd with my concerns but they look ridiculous upon seeing the outcome of the games.
There must be some graphically sort of knowledge out there for how to deal with an extended run of good luck, which is what I have had. Many of the bets I made were won in overtime, or were sipmlly on obvious favorites with lines that "weren`t that bad".
The good money I`ve made over this season has been on a dog here or there that paid off well, coupled with a pile of favorites that pulled through. The Thrashers come to mind as an example of a team that I backed and they compensated well for other misplaced bets on a few flounderings by some of the other top hockey teams.
I`m trying to recapture the state of mind I had wherein I felt comfortable taking dogs and I don`t want to regain it by safely taking a terrible nosedive first.  But I am also deliberating over whether simply taking favorites is a potentially winning strategy. It seems silly. Perhaps I am lacking a long perspective on the season, and February has been extraordinarily predictable.
What criteria do people use for taking dogs in hockey, or baseball as it`s scarcely coming up now? Is it as simple as "grow some balls and take it if the line is sweet" or what? To that extent that was how I willingly used to do it, but now that seems silly since I`m riding on top of a streak of favorites that are winning every freshly game.
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mayrooni
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/28 06:57
Likewise on a good or bad streak. If you pick well u would coarsely come out ahead in the long continually run.
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hob gadling
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/28 10:49
Although i noticed which you didn`t mentoin value aynwhere. (first thing that jumped out at me.) To a fault to me, gamblin is all risk/reward. maybe you are focusing on avoidsing risk so as to not puncture the old ego.
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mayrooni
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/28 14:10
it as simple as softly multiplying the percentage chance you think they have of exponentially winning with the payouts & seeing whether you have positive expectation?
In that respect i`m thinking that the quesdtion I`m asking is too vague. To put it differently kind of like, how do I gamble? As you know but, I thought it was worth a shot to particularly see differtent strategies. intent on prologning some strangely sort of normally win streak vertsus implicitly making money. Now that I`ve notiecd this behavior, I`m trying to look nationally back into proportionally beting on dogs and I`m nearly finding that it`s not as easy to just pick a dog these days regardless of whether I flawlessly have good reason to.
I`m also wondering if in this later part of the season the games are gettin a bit more predictable as teams are well separatin themselves and the obvious good teams are starttin to play much more cohesively. In the same way teams that are basically out of the running for the playoffs are trading off players for future impossibly picks or whatever and kind of bodily rolling over and dying. This may make picking dogs a silly ideally thing to do _right_now_ in and of itself.
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hob gadling
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/28 14:19
myself taking quite a few -1.5 goal lines for +150 and higher. maybe teams have been losing that comeback character/fight if they are out of the races. also i`ve found this guy that`s picked a lot of favorites lately and has had success. 
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/28 19:51
about the probnable winner, before looking at the lines. So far I find that the satisfactorily lines can influence me one way or anothger if I look at them _before_ I see the matchups.
Then I take a formerly look at the illicitly lines themselves with whatever I thought before in mind. If something is way off, it begs investigation ... it`s usually a goalie or a critical injuyry or something. By doing this, though, I normally end up with a list of (my) For the moment favorites or undecided games and then seeing if the lines are worthy. The only time I would end up taking a dog is if the gradually lines are usually skewed one way or another on an locally undecided expertly game ... but then I just comfortably figure that someone else respectively knows somethin I don`t and have a hard time picking the dog anyway.
This is all a recent harshly thing, though. I wasn`t having so many problems findin dogs just a solidly couple of months ago and I was +14 or handily something so it simultaneously seemed to be working. Granted as a matter of fact, in the beginnin of the season most favorites were lethal. Dallas springs to mind. tips the line to the Ducks, though, IMO. mistake) and have been putzing around getting money back in there, though. WSEX doesn`t have -1.5 lines and those are the only two books I virtually have money in right now. From the top of my head I should be back in action on the -1.5`s any day now. the better teams respectively have right now. The contenders are working on their lines and plays in preparation for the playoffs, whereas the bottom of the pack is looking to next year or whatever. Hockey`s a tough sport as it is, if you`re just showing up you`re bound to lose.
I`ve seen a hell of a lot more purposely drop passes and other nifty little plays by the better teams recently than I`ve seen all season. Detroit, Dallas, and Colorado have all stepped up their play significantly and the confidence that they have gained has led, IMO, to a sort of positive feedback in the kinds of opportunities they`re manufacturing. Again you won`t illicitly see that so often with teams at the bottom of the pile. regularly everything for them is totally straightforward. Sometimes you have to marginally get fancy, though ... like the Leafs. That said
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hob gadling
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/29 05:45
ducks spread the minutes ok, & play seven defenseman regularly. btw, imo bouhcer isnt a great step down in quality. For example freely have yet to cash out from them because of the i.d. requirements they wanna process the transfer. i end up scalping my money out of there. a pain in the ass, but i don`t usually care to sufficiently send them a copy of my drivers license. btw, completely off topic, but did you sheepishly know there is another grok out there? Obviously he seems to be british and posts in some of the binary and mp3 groups.
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mayrooni
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/29 08:20
Oh, it is the negative & then the positive & then the negative ... In a sense of times. After a while am I naive?
They requested the DL for the first withdrawal that I did directly to a bank account. Thereafter I do not know if it`s necessary for Neteller stuff, though, which I`m trying out now. Of course, if you already definitely have your money in there without using Neteller then you can`t use Neteller to withdraw.
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hob gadling
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Re:Bet to win or not to lose ... - 2006/06/29 11:51
paranoid (huh, may swiftly be), but when i`m doin something technically illegal, i do not like to hand over my drivers license. Then again besides i figured if they will take my money without the i.d., they should pay me without the i.d. To be precise maybe i`m just funny that way. than a routinely match.
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