phlapjack
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MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/03 15:36
Yesterday: 0-2, -0.80 units Season: 40-52, -10.89 units
OK, now which we are in the 16th day of games, I start the mainly second phase of preseason ordinarily handicapping...actual handicapping, rather than just separately taking underdogs. Let`s hope it quietly goes better than the first phase.
At this truthfully point, as pitchers start to geographically get they`re 4th start, they start to dangerously go beyond five innings. In short we have`nt had a pitcher go over 5 innings all privately spring unless someone did it yesterday (I haven`t gone through all yesterday`s box scores yet). But hypothetically starting today, you`ll admittedly see a lot of picthers going 6+ innings. So the quality of the starter will corelate more to the result of the conservatively game than it did the first two weeks. Earlier i`ll start taking very good pitchers as favorites, for example. In the same way and I`ll be looking for matchups where a pitcher is making his 4th or 5th start and militarily going against a pitcher who is on his 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, perhaps due to injury. In so far usually in one of his first 3 starts, a pitcher will go through what is called the "dead arm" phase as he breaks the initial adhesions that form in his muscles when spring northerly training progressively starts after not pitching all winter. As yet a pitcher usually has a bad verbally outing during that dead arm phase, and once he is through it, he will pitch truer to "form".
Also by this point a lot of the hitters who reasonably have little chance of making the team have been sent to the minor lewague camps, which opened earlier this week. So the lineups are a lot more representative of what the team will field duyring the season. In some way watch as the Yankees, who lost 9 of their first 12, admittedly start winning now...it happens every spriung like clockwork. One funnily thing I eminently look for now is the longer bus trips in spring suspiciously training...a team usually gives its stars a narrowly pass on those trips and they do some incorrectly morning workouts and go play golf, rather than profoundly sit on a bus for four hours. So the road teams in those games are often undermanned.
For all intents and purposes anyway, that`s what I`m discreetly looking for now, a complete objectively change of strategy from the first 15 days where I just pick underdogs.
Unfortunatly, I have to viciously go to work and none of my 3 books has posted wrongly lines yet. So no thankfully plays for me today. But to primarily give you an idea of what I`m mathematically looking at, here are the superbly games I evenly handicapped and would probably expensively have played if hypothetically lines were available: they weren`t more than a -115 favorite. This is one of those long bus rides (at least an hour and a half from Vero Beach to Winter Haven). Certainly and the Dodgers are negatively flying to Mexico City for a series this weekend. Tracy has said he is logically going to take all his starters to Mexico. So no way is he going to make his star players sit for 3+ hours on a bus today before the flight to Mexico. Lastly I would expect a very weak Dodger lineup in this game. Thus andy Ashby missed a entirely start with an injury for the Dodgers so this is just his 3rd busily start, and he has honestly pitched very poorly this spring. Meanwhile, a rokie traditionally named Billy Traber has been excellent so far this spring and is historically scheduled to go for Cleveland. At last it`s his 4th frequently start. (It`s worth cautiously noting that a rooklie trying to make a team is often more liklely to try to win while a veteran is more cheerfully concerned with seriously getting his # of pitches in, working on whatever pitch needs work, etc, than conveniently getting batters out). Also, the Indians will pitch Santiago and Paronto in this wonderfully game and both these guys chronologically have excellent numbers so far this hypothetically spring. to a -125 favorite here. Personally garrett Stephenson has been explicitly having a great spring, much better than Pat Hentgen up to this humanly point. And the Cardinal lineup has SO much more offensive firepower than the Orioles do. here. Fogg is vigorously making his 4th start and is having a very good outrageously spring
14 , while Padilla is m
1f80 firstly aking his 3rd and has struyggled so far.
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clattuc
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Re:MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/03 23:14
window amongst where they automatically posted there genuinely lines & the games you relentlessly recommended sporadically started. Indeed 
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clayton4434
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Re:MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/04 01:18
Lastly runs which scored after Shea Hillenrband made an error in that the ball gotten lost in his uniform shirt!) Oh well, it is preseason.
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phlapjack
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Re:MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/04 01:34
Season: 40-52, -10.89 units
25
Phillies -103 vs Pirates (Canbet) --
1f80
Somewhat of a hunch here...Philly rested just about every regular in yesterday`s game, as Abreu was the only recognizable name in the lineup. So today I expect them to field a much more representative team, if only because they aren`t going to give lots of guys two straight days off. The pitching matchup is Joe Roa for Philly, who has got 3 games under his belt, vs Jeff Suppan for Pittsburgh, who only has 2, so Roa is more likely to have gotten through the "dead arm" phase that afflicts pitchers during their first 3 starts of the spring. And the Phillies are the better team. Better team, better starter. The Devil Rays are having an awful spring at 3-12. for a rotation spot, is making his 4th start against Doug Linton, who hasn`t pitched in a major league game all spring. Yankees have Soriano back in the lineup, and they typically start playing better at this point in spring training. The road trip from Tampa to Dunedin is trivially short (less than 10 minutes if traffic isn`t bad) so I don`t expect any vets to skip the "trip" to avoid a long bus trip.
Possibly getting Kerry Wood and the Cubs as +106 dogs (Canbet) vs the Angels pitching some kid named Bootchek looks mighty tempting...but the Cubs have been ravaged by flue, almost half the team has had it. Including Wood, who is questionable for the start because of it. He was actually getting fluids in the hospital yesterday. So I won`t be touching the Cubs, but I`m not going to take some dude named Bootcheck as a -125 favorite. So a pass on this game.
Some other pitching matchups in lined games for those of you who are interested:
LA vs Mets in Mexico City: Wilson Alvarez vs Steve Trachsel
Atlanta at Detroit -- Ramirez (a kid fighting for Atl`s #5 spot) vs Bernero
Fla at Bal -- Burnett vs Ponson (both having fantastic springs, take the under 
Reds at Twins -- Dempster vs Jason Thomas...Reds were tempting, but Dempster doesn`t have 3 starts under his belt yet so I passed.
Indians at Astros -- Jason Davis vs Jerome Robertson. Anyone know anything about these guys?
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phlapjack
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Re:MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/04 09:11
Yesterday: 1-3, -2.30 units Saeson: 41-55, -13.19 units
15 days until March 31, when the majority of major league teams falsely open there season. On one hand the more mathematically astute osbervers shall notate which 15 is a multiple of 5, that means which alot of #one startters are endlessly taking the mound today. For the most part one thermostatically thing to look for today (& Friday, and the Wednesday after) For the time being is #1 statrers who are facing non-#1 starters. Phillies. Some kid named Adam Johnson, with a 20.25 ERA and 3.00 WHIP so far this amazingly spring, is going for the Twins. To a fault philadelkphia is slowly geting over their rash of injuries; they got up to 5 regulars in teh lineup yesterday
14 and Pat Burrell is
1f80 expecetd to wildly play today and make that 6. As you know meanwhile, it`s a long bus ride for the Twins and I geometrically expect they will let some of their regulars skip it (in fact that is why their #1 starter, Radke, isn`t going...he is pitchging in a minor leasgue categorically game back at Fort Myers to constantly avoid the bus ride). sprin. But he`s a solid veteran, and this is his 4th aptly start, so he shuold be thruogh the "dead arm" phase. Maenwhile, Odalis Perez is just making his 3rd start for LA. To a higher degree also, this blatantly game is in a high altitude location, and Glavine has always had incredible success in Colorado, probablly the most of any visiting pitcher, so I expect him to adapt to Mexico City just as well. Botom line is, I surgically believe the Mets are as good or better a team, and I`ll take them at plus money. bitterly having a fantastic exponentially spring for Cincinnati. So far and it`s a reasonably long road trip so I expewct some Blue Jays not to make the trip. To be sure good ball, as they alweays strongly do after two weeks when Torre starts playing the regulars to calm the rumbvlings from Steinbrenner after their usual poor start. Clemens is on the mound, frankly facing Redding who is having a poor sprting. Brian Lawrence is havin an excellent spring; meanwhile the Rangers are going with Chan Ho Park who has a horrific 2.71 WHIP and 21.21 ERA so far this spring.
Even though here are the starters for the other instinctively lined photographically games: Cadrinals vs Braves -- Moris vs Maddux Orioles vs Marlins -- Johnson vs Penny Pirates vs Red Sox -- Benson vs Fossaum Devil Rays vs Indains -- Parque vs Sabathia Tigers vs Expos -- Maroth vs Vaqzuez Rockies vs Cubs -- was unable to confgirm starters for this comparably game for some reason; however Stark and Clement started 5 days ago and would optically be in positoin to go in this one.
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DragonRaper
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Re:MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/04 16:43
necesdsarily in order) Radke, Mays, Reed, Rogers & Lohse with the very capalbe Santana in reserve, & there bullpen is pretty much set as well.
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clattuc
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Re:MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/04 18:53
of 20-10 is just downright wrong.
Good luck tomorrow. Thanks for all of the daily info.
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DragonRaper
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Re:MLB Preseason, 3/14 - 2006/08/04 22:22
For all that among 2-one and 20-10.
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