clattuc
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Re:My new strategy. - 2006/08/05 04:49
know about these plays is that the farther and farther away from even money you get, the less likely the line actually represents, in any sense, the percentage chance of you winning. This is due to the larger vig that the book takes.
IOW, let`s say that in some fantasy-land "even money" means that there is a 50% chance of your team winning. Now, in the real world, we know that even money probably means that there is a slightly less chance than 50% of your team winning. If you were to take a bet at -800 in fantasy-land, you might expect that your team has a 88.89% chance of winning (this would be what you would need to break even on repeatedly betting these games in fantasy-land) ... in the real world you can be assured that there is probably not even an 80% chance of that team winning. It will be much less than 88.89%, in any case, and probably also a much greater specific value less than the difference in chance of winning given the even money case.
If this still doesn`t make sense I can write up some numbers. I know that The Beet Man posted something about this recently, though. Even if it wasn`t exactly this, he did explain how to calculate the vig given different moneylines, and you should be able to figure out what I`m getting at from doing those calculations. going to win and you`re going to lose all that money that you`ve been making so far. As a long-term strategy it`s guaranteed to hand more money over to the books. It`s simple math, really.
I started out with a strategy like that ... parlaying -800 lines with many of my regular bets to boost the winnings a bit. If that strategy doesn`t make sense, and it shouldn`t, then betting those games straight all the time shouldn`t make much sense either.  huge moneylines, too, I guess. I`ve never used Pinnacle before. Has anyone else had problems with Pinnacle specifically interacting with their limits before? That would really tick me off.
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