gnjpn
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Re:Q- payout and odds - 2006/01/02 01:14
wow futures guy this is definitely square one for you!...ok then here goes....
1. the morning line odds have no bearing on final odds. get that straight. the track assigns someone to try and come up with what the average joe thinks about each horse when he looks over the form. some horses always look better on paper than others. and he makes a line based on this.
2. later that day as it gets closer and closer to post time, real money is wagered by people like you and i, and these dollars begin to tell a picture, of what the public really thinks about the chances of each horse in the race. if the guy who wrote that morning line is very good, the real odds will approximate what he`s `dreamt up`, and i might add, he has had to come up with this line the day before the actual race, sometimes earlier. he doesn`t know what even the complete greenhorn knows....for instance, the track condition....a storm front can change things dramatically. and a horse who might fight for the early lead could be scratched, making some other horse less challenged, and on and on.....
3. you could do worse than to bet the post time favorite, some days you might even make money doing this, but, in the long haul, thats a wash because favorites don`t pay enough to cover the `take`. what is the take?
4. the take is what pays to keep the sport alive.
5. the take varies by the type of bet, and varies by the racing authorities in the various states.
6. the take on a straight win wager ranges from a low of around 15%, to around 20% .
7. 15%-20% of what?.....of all the money wagered. this is taken off the total before winning are disbursed to holders of winning tickets.
8. what is the take used for?.....among other things, it is a way for government to raise money. some states have kept racing out , some embrace it vigorously...for example Kentucky, did you know horses are the number one business in that state?.......something to ponder! other things the take goes for......oh wow....purses......the purses the owners hope to win with their horses. and there is a correlation between the size of the purse and the quality of racing at your local track!.....what else does the take do?....well the track operators only do well if they handle lots and lots of wagers, since all their operating expenses have to be taken care of before they can make a profit!
9. the line(your own)....what is this?.......somehow, consciously or not, you must sooner or later gauge each horse actual chances of winning against todays field. then check the tote board and see if the public agrees with you. They do? that must be good....no its not so good on second thought. you are risking your own money, in hopes of getting some of theirs!......if you are right, you should be rewarded!........lets say the public does agree with you and makes your horse 1-1...(tote will only have a 1 up there) or slightly less....4/5 for instance......say to yourself put up five to win 4 this will make it clearer....you put up five, win four, the ticket brings back nine dollars, but 5 of it was already yours get it?.......ok this kind of horse has to win a lot of these races to make you a regular winner. one horse at oh 7 or 8 to one (that you didn`t overlook, but most of the public did) will do you much better. but you must realize that you are more at risk, however, its a calculated risk isn`t it? you figured before the race your horse should be 1-1 or 4/5 and he ends up 7 or 8 to one(doesn`t happen often, but it happens)....so, its a bet....stand by your convictions. after the race you collect if you were right, and if you lose, study the outcome and try to see where you misread. never doubt the value of the racing form. some days you will think it has no value, those days, maybe you shouldn`t have been attempting any wagers. if a day like that rolls around, don`t force things. pull in your horns and wait for a better day.
10. try to see that, even when you chose correctly, you may have just been lucky, and accept that. i`ll explain....say you think your horse has the only early speed in the race, and he will get an easy lead and prevail.....then maybe ooops.....boy takes him back right outta the gate and suddenly he becomes the greatest `closer` in the race!...what gives?.....oh, upon looking back at the racing form pp`s for this horse you do find a race where hes pulled this off before and won.....now, maybe you weren`t wrong about the race but you still bet him for the wrong reasons....ok, you can learn something after all! the horse has the rare gift of managability....he won`t resent being held up early, and responds to the riders urging. oh boy its late and i do ramble, hope you do well
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