old_latrobe33
User
Senior Member
| Posts: 81 |   |
Karma: 0
|
Reverse Handicapping Test - 2006/03/28 14:47
I noticed an intriguing pattern in the races I have been playing of late. I play only races where I find 8 or more serious contenders. By using a series of handicapping rules to first select races to actually handicap, then another series of rules to indentify and then rate those contenders. Sounds complicated but it is cery simplified.
However, I have noticed that the discarded horses, still win several of these wide open races. Usually a look back shows that those winners would be very hard to come with using any conventional handicapping rules. Scratch your head type winners.
The pattern involves only those listed at 12/1 or higher in the morning line. They obviously win at a very low rate, but so far they have averaged about $70 per winner. You don`t need a big win rate at that price.
I am not ready to run off and bet real money on this radical methods, so I am going to play around with it here today. And some more in the future.
Aqu R6 3/9/10/11 Aqu R9 4/11
Crc R2 1 Crc R5 1/4/10/11/12/14 Crc R6 8 Crc R7 5 Crc R11 1/4/5/7/16f (16f - had to be an unusual factor to deal with when I tested it)
CD R8 4
GG R6 6
Haw R9 10/12 Haw R10 2/4/9
Hol R5 5
Hoo R2 2/3
Lrl R3 4/6 Lrl R4 2/3/5 Lrl R5 2/3/7 Lrl R7 1/4/8
Med R8 4/5
Mnr R5 4/7
Pen R7 4
Hou R5 2/4 Hou R9 4/6
Suf R7 5/10 Suf R9 6/7/9
TuP R7 1/11
Popular posts by old_latrobe33
Breeder`s Cup High Roller Contest
Is anyone seeing my post???? (Valup...
Breeder`s Cup High Roller Contest
|
post new topic